Petrobras crude exports changed direction in Q3 2026. US buyers took 12% of the company’s crude exports, up from 2% in Q2 2026. Meanwhile, India’s share fell to 8% from 22%. Then, on 10 November 2026, Petrobras raised its 2026 oil output guidance.
This analysis looks at where Petrobras crude exports went, and what the shift means for Atlantic Basin traders.
Where Petrobras crude exports went in Q3 2026
Exports of crude and oil products hit a record 1.251 mmbbl/d, Petrobras said. Crude made up 0.987 mmbbl/d, slightly below 0.996 mmbbl/d in Q2 2026. However, another 0.14 mmbbl/d was still at sea at the end of the quarter. Petrobras will book those cargoes in Q4 2026.
China remained the largest outlet, at 40% of crude exports, up from 35%. Europe, meanwhile, held steady at 18%. By contrast, India’s share slumped, and the US share rose six-fold. Petrobras said the split reflects “the relative attractiveness of each market”.
Why the barrels turned towards the US
Freight is a big part of the answer. Kpler said in October 2026 that VLCC rates from Brazil to China had eased to about $32 a barrel, from about $39. Even so, delivered prices in Asia stayed high. As a result, shorter voyages gained an edge.
Official trade data point the same way. Brazil exported a record 14.49mn tonnes of crude in October 2026, Secex data showed. That is ~3.4 mmbbl/d on our estimate, at ~7.3 barrels a tonne. In addition, Brazil’s exports to the US rose 87% year on year to $4.32bn, and crude explained about half of the gain.
India may come back, though. Kpler put Brazilian flows to India at about 0.2 mmbbl/d in October 2026, a four-month high. So the Q3 2026 drop in India’s share may not last.
What Petrobras crude exports mean for Brent spreads
More supply is coming. Petrobras now expects 2026 oil output of 2.7-2.8 mmbbl/d, up from 2.5 mmbbl/d. Loadings also set records, at 37.2mn barrels in July 2026 and 37.8mn barrels in August 2026.
That pressure already shows in prices. Kpler said Tupi delivered to Shandong fell to a premium of about $17 a barrel over ICE Brent in October 2026, from almost $26. It also said a large share of November-loading Brazilian cargoes remained unsold. Furthermore, Guyana is pushing its exports towards 1 mmbbl/d.
Futures are softer too. Brent settled at $91.49 a barrel on 10 November 2026, its lowest since 31 August 2026. Petrobras’s average Brent fell to $97.00 in Q3 2026, from $104.52 in Q2 2026. On top of that, Brazil’s export tax on crude and diesel cost it $867mn in the quarter.
Our Petrobras Q3 2026 results report covers profit, cash, debt, dividends, segments and guidance. For the US price backdrop, see our analysis of the Brent-WTI spread.
What to watch next
- The 0.14 mmbbl/d of crude in transit, which should lift Q4 2026 export volumes.
- India’s share in Q4 2026, after Kpler flagged a four-month high in October 2026.
- Tupi and Búzios differentials to Brent as December 2026 cargoes clear.
Sources
- Petrobras, Production & Sales report for Q3 2026, 28 October 2026: petrobras.com.br
- Petrobras, financial performance release for Q3 2026 (US$), 10 November 2026: petrobras.com.br
- Kpler, Weak demand leaves Brazilian November cargoes unsold, October 2026: kpler.com
- Business Recorder (Reuters), Record oil exports lifts Brazil trade surplus above forecasts in Oct, 6 November 2026: brecorder.com
- O Povo, Petróleo bruto cresce 122,6% e puxa recorde de exportação em outubro, 6 November 2026: opovo.com.br
- Reuters via Euronext, Oil prices ease to two-month lows as US downplays further Iran strikes, 10 November 2026: live.euronext.com
