Venezuelan Heavy Crude: What ExxonMobil’s Return Means for Gulf Coast Spreads

How much Venezuelan heavy crude reaches the US

Venezuela’s oil exports held at 1.08 mmbbl/d in October 2026, Reuters shipping data showed. That figure covers crude, fuel and products. However, shipments to the US, the largest destination, fell nearly 29% from September 2026, to about 0.449 mmbbl/d.

Cargoes went elsewhere instead. For example, exports to Europe jumped to 0.235 mmbbl/d, from 0.086 mmbbl/d. Meanwhile, India took 0.242 mmbbl/d. Chevron exported about 0.303 mmbbl/d, while traders such as Vitol and Trafigura shipped about 0.506 mmbbl/d, down from 0.637 mmbbl/d.

The bigger change is year on year. Vortexa data put Venezuelan deliveries to the US Gulf Coast at ~0.48 mmbbl/d over September and October 2026, Argus reported. That compares with ~0.13 mmbbl/d a year earlier. Valero also said it ran record volumes of Venezuelan crude in Q3 2026.

What it has done to heavy-light spreads

Venezuelan Merey competes with Canadian heavy crude for Gulf Coast cokers. Argus estimates the region runs about 1.7 mmbbl/d of coking capacity. As a result, extra Venezuelan supply weighs on Western Canadian Select (WCS).

The discounts show it. WCS in Houston hit a record discount of $23 a barrel to WTI in late October 2026, Reuters said. At Hardisty, December 2026 WCS settled $25.75 below WTI on 10 November 2026. Earlier in November 2026, the gap had reached $31.

Freight explains part of the move. High tanker rates cut demand for Canadian re-exports off the Gulf Coast. They also kept Venezuelan and Colombian heavy crude in the Atlantic Basin, Argus said. That gap favours US refiners, as our analysis of US refining margins at Valero and Phillips 66 set out.

Why the ExxonMobil MOU matters for Venezuelan heavy crude

The MOU is a first step, not a production deal. ExxonMobil has named no fields. It also wants “stable policies, clear regulations, strong investment protections and competitive returns”. Even so, it once owned 41.67% of Cerro Negro, the heavy crude project now called Petromonagas.

In the near term, supply is the constraint. Output has stalled, and Venezuela imported 0.139 mmbbl/d of naphtha in October 2026 to dilute its extra-heavy crude. Moreover, stocks of naphtha-diluted crude at the Jose terminal neared 4mn barrels, a sign of weak demand. Therefore, any ExxonMobil barrels are years away.

Benchmarks are falling meanwhile. Brent settled at $91.49 and WTI at $86.04 on 10 November 2026, a spread of $5.45 a barrel.

What to watch next

• Named fields and a definitive contract under the ExxonMobil MOU.
• US-bound Venezuelan exports in November 2026, after October’s 29% drop.
• WCS at Houston and Hardisty, as freight rates ease from their October 2026 peak.