The Saudi Aramco OSP for Asian buyers has fallen to a six-year low. Reuters reported the cut on 10 November 2026. Aramco reduced the December 2026 official selling price for Arab Light by $2 a barrel, to the lowest level since May 2020.
This analysis looks at why the Saudi Aramco OSP gave Asia the deepest cut, and what that says about physical differentials.
How the Saudi Aramco OSP now splits by region
Reuters put Arab Light for Asia at a discount of $6.50 a barrel to the Oman/Dubai average. However, Argaam and QCIntel put the same differential at minus $7. We report both, because the full pricing document has not been published.
Europe received a smaller cut. Aramco lowered all grades to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $1 a barrel. By contrast, it left official prices for US buyers unchanged.
The resulting differentials tell the same story. Arab Light for Northwest Europe now sits $0.15 below Brent, Argaam said. The Mediterranean grade sits $0.35 below. Meanwhile, North American Arab Light stays at a $4.60 premium to the Argus Sour Crude Index.
Why Aramco is discounting Asia
The cut matched the top end of a Reuters survey. Traders had expected official prices to stay unchanged, or to fall by up to $2 a barrel. They pointed to ample Middle East supplies and weaker spot premiums.
Indeed, spot premiums for Middle East crude have returned to pre-war levels, Reuters said. Producers have also raised exports, even as attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have continued. At the same time, cooling refining margins in Asia have slowed buying interest.
Supply is recovering too. OPEC output rose by 1.38 mmbbl/d in October 2026, to 22.87 mmbbl/d, a Reuters survey found. Furthermore, HSBC raised its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast for Saudi crude output to 8.3 mmbbl/d, from 6.3 mmbbl/d. It also lifted its 2027 forecast to 9.8 mmbbl/d, from 8.8 mmbbl/d. In addition, the bank expects output to return to about 10 mmbbl/d by mid-2027.
What the Saudi Aramco OSP means for traders
The official selling price sets the cost of Saudi term barrels. As a result, a deeper Asian discount lowers crude costs for refiners that buy under contract.
It also marks a shift in the physical market. During the war, Gulf grades traded at a large premium to paper Brent. We set that out in our analysis of the Murban premium and the Brent physical-paper gap. Now that premium is narrowing, as more barrels reach the water.
Futures have weakened too. Brent fell 5.85% to settle at $92.57 a barrel on 9 November 2026, after President Donald Trump played down renewed strikes on Iran.
What to watch for the Saudi Aramco OSP
- December 2026 nominations by Asian refiners, which will show whether the deeper discount brings volumes back.
- The January 2027 official selling prices, once Aramco sets them in December 2026.
- HSBC’s 8.3 mmbbl/d fourth-quarter 2026 output call against actual Saudi loadings.
Sources
- Reuters via Zawya, Saudi Arabia cuts December Asia oil prices to fresh 6-year low: zawya.com
- Argaam, Aramco keeps North American Arab Light price unchanged for December: argaam.com
- insigtX, Saudi Aramco Cuts December Arab Light Crude OSP for Asia by $2 to Six-Year Low: insigtx.com
- QCIntel, Saudi cuts December Asia OSPs to new 6-yr lows, Arab Light at -$7/b: qcintel.com
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Oil down more than $7 a barrel in post settlement trade as Trump signals restraint on Iran, 9 November 2026: finance.yahoo.com
