The IEA LNG supply outlook is grim. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global LNG supply will fall by 3% in 2026, a record annual drop. In its Global Gas Security Review 2026, out on 3 November 2026, it said tightness could last well into 2027. Low gas storage in Europe is the main reason.
“The current Middle East crisis has dealt a major shock to global gas and LNG markets,” the IEA said. Indeed, LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by over 60 bcm year on year in March to October 2026.
How the IEA LNG supply numbers add up
New supply has filled only part of the gap. Output from projects outside the Gulf, mainly in North America and Africa, rose by 14%, or more than 40 bcm. That offset about two-thirds of the lost Gulf volumes. Even so, global LNG production fell by 6%, or around 20 bcm, over March to October 2026.
For the full year, the IEA expects LNG supply to drop by almost 20 bcm. However, this forecast assumes Strait of Hormuz flows remain largely disrupted at least until the end of 2026. QatarEnergy has already extended force majeure on most deliveries to the end of December 2026.
Prices, spreads and contracts
Prices have climbed to their highest since the 2022-23 energy crisis. Between March and October 2026, Europe’s TTF spot price rose by almost 70% to an average close to $20/MMBtu. Meanwhile, Asian spot LNG rose by almost 80% to $21.5/MMBtu.
The spread between the two regions has also narrowed. Asian spot LNG traded at a $2/MMBtu premium to TTF between March and July 2026. By contrast, the gap shrank to about $1/MMBtu between August and October 2026, which signals fierce competition for flexible cargoes.
Oil-indexed LNG prices reached an estimated $12-14/MMBtu in Q3 2026. Furthermore, oil prices feed into contract formulas with a five to six month lag. So the IEA expects the impact to grow in Q4 2026.
Demand falls and storage risk
High prices are cutting gas use. Global demand fell by more than 1%, or over 35 bcm, in January to September 2026. As a result, the IEA expects 2026 demand to fall by around 1.5%, close to 65 bcm. That is the third annual drop since 2020. Middle East demand should drop by about 10%, Europe’s by 3% and Asia Pacific’s by 1.5%.
EU storage entered the 2026-27 heating season at its lowest level since 2013. In a cold winter with Hormuz still disrupted, IEA simulations show EU storage below 10% by the end of March 2027. Consequently, Europe would need heavy refilling through summer 2027. For the price impact so far, read our report on Europe’s gas price topping €100.
Longer-term IEA LNG supply losses
The IEA puts cumulative LNG supply losses at 150 bcm in 2026-2030. That includes damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant. That equals 15% of the new LNG supply due over the period. On the positive side, destination-flexible contracts rose from 29% of the market in 2016 to more than 50% in 2025. That flexibility has helped cargoes move to where buyers need them.
Next, watch weekly EU storage data, winter weather and any recovery in Qatari loadings. In addition, four North American projects approved since March 2026 will add supply only later this decade.
