The TTF gas price has had its sharpest week of the autumn. JOGMEC data put the December 2026 TTF contract at $28.0/MMBtu on 6 November 2026. That was down from $34.0/MMBtu on 30 October 2026. As a result, the contract has fallen by around 18%.
This analysis looks at whether the TTF gas price has run ahead of Europe’s winter inventories.
How far the TTF gas price has fallen
In euro terms, the drop is almost as steep. Argus put TTF at about €86/MWh (about $96) on 6 November 2026, down almost 17% from €104/MWh (about $117). We convert those euro prices at the rate implied by Anadolu Agency. It reported €82.21 as $92.10 on 9 November 2026. Moreover, European gas fell another 3.95% that day, to €82.21 ($92.10) per MWh.
However, Asian spot LNG fell much less. The average price for December 2026 delivery eased to $31.40/MMBtu in the week to 6 November 2026, from $32.50. In addition, daily JKM had traded in the mid-$29s on 5 November 2026, then rebounded to the high-$31s.
Why storage still argues for caution
EU underground storage stood at 73.0% on 6 November 2026, according to AGSI+ data. That is 12.6% lower than a year earlier. It is also 18.6% below the five-year average. In other words, Europe entered mid-November 2026 with a thinner buffer than usual.
Nevertheless, supply hopes drove the slide anyway. “Prices have fallen over the past week, partly because of an apparent shift in tone towards de-escalation from Trump and of increased Qatari supply expectations,” said Martin Senior of Argus. He added that Qatari loadings were well above half of capacity.
Toby Copson of Davenport Energy struck a more cautious note. “The whole market remains structurally tight heading into winter, with disrupted Middle Eastern supply and weaker European storage increasing competition for flexible cargoes,” he said.
The TTF gas price and the JKM spread
On our calculation, JKM held a premium of more than $3/MMBtu over TTF at the end of the week. Around 1 November 2026, the gap had run the other way. TTF was near $34/MMBtu and JKM near $32, Reuters reported. We set that inversion out in our analysis of the US LNG arbitrage and the TTF-JKM spread.
Even so, the physical arbitrage has not fully flipped. Spark Commodities said US and Nigerian cargoes via the Cape of Good Hope still pointed firmly to Europe. In fact, Atlantic LNG freight was $55,250 a day. Pacific freight was $32,750 a day. Meanwhile, S&P Global Energy assessed Northwest Europe LNG for December 2026 at $29.065/MMBtu on 5 November 2026. That was a $0.560 discount to front-month TTF.
In the US, Henry Hub rose to $3.0/MMBtu, from $2.9, helped by strong LNG feedgas demand.
What to watch for the TTF gas price
- Weekly EU storage, starting from 73.0% on 6 November 2026.
- The JKM-TTF spread, and whether flexible US cargoes still sail west.
- Japanese utility stocks, which METI put at 1.92mn tonnes on 1 November 2026, down 0.23mn tonnes week on week.
Sources
- Pipeline & Gas Journal, Asian spot LNG prices ease but remain near four-year high as Europe competes for winter supply, November 2026: pgjonline.com
- Global LNG Hub (JOGMEC data), Natural gas prices weekly update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub, 9 November 2026: globallnghub.com
- Anadolu Agency, Global energy prices extend losses as Brent crude drops nearly 5% on hopes of US-Iran deal, 9 November 2026: aa.com.tr
- Reuters via gCaptain, Venture Global begins supplying Plaquemines customers under long-term LNG contracts: gcaptain.com
