The TotalEnergies LNG portfolio grew at both ends this week. On 3 November 2026, TotalEnergies agreed to buy up to 1.6mn tonnes of LNG from ADNOC Gas over five years. A day later, it agreed to sell 0.9 mtpa to China’s Jiangsu Guoxin Group for 15 years from 2028.
This analysis looks at the trade behind the two deals, and what they say about Asian contracting.
Short-term supply, long-term sales
However, the two deals differ in size and tenor. The ADNOC Gas volume is a total, not an annual figure, TotalEnergies said. On our calculation, it averages ~0.32 mtpa over five years. First deliveries are due in 2026.
By contrast, the Jiangsu deal is a heads of agreement, still subject to final sale and purchase agreements. It adds to a 2 mtpa, 15-year Sinopec deal from 2028, which TotalEnergies signed in November 2024. Together, that makes 2.9 mtpa of long-term China sales from 2028, on our calculation.
In short, this is how the TotalEnergies LNG portfolio works. First, it buys flexible volumes from many sources. Then it sells long-term to end users. The margin lies in the gap between the two.
Why Chinese buyers are signing now
Above all, Qatar’s crisis explains the timing. Qatari LNG shipments to China fell 57.6% to 4.7mn tonnes in January-July 2026, Al Majalla reported, according to gasworld. Furthermore, QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on deliveries to the end of December 2026.
At the same time, spot cargoes are expensive. Spot LNG prices have climbed to more than three times pre-war levels, Bloomberg reported. Around 1 November 2026, JKM stood at ~$32/MMBtu, Reuters reported. So a provincial buyer such as Jiangsu Guoxin has every reason to lock in term supply from a diversified seller.
Gregory Joffroy, TotalEnergies’ senior vice-president of LNG, said the company had kept delivering “despite major disruptions this year”. In our view, buyers now pay for that reliability as much as for the gas itself.
What the TotalEnergies LNG portfolio says about ADNOC
The ADNOC Gas deal also carries Hormuz risk. Unlike crude, LNG cannot easily bypass the strait by pipeline. In fact, Hormuz LNG flows ran at ~30% of pre-war volumes in October 2026, Bloomberg reported. For the TotalEnergies LNG portfolio, therefore, that risk sits on a small, flexible volume, not on its core China book.
Meanwhile, ADNOC is building its own trading arm. Its new platform targets 47 mtpa of marketable LNG beyond 2030, The National reported. Ruwais LNG, where TotalEnergies is a partner, adds two 4.8 mtpa trains from 2028. For the US side of the trade, read US LNG Arbitrage: Why Europe Now Outbids Asia for American Cargoes.
What to watch for the TotalEnergies LNG portfolio
- Binding sale and purchase agreements for the Jiangsu Guoxin deal.
- More Chinese provincial buyers signing term deals with portfolio players.
- QatarEnergy’s force majeure after December 2026, and any reopening of Hormuz.
Sources
- TotalEnergies, United Arab Emirates: TotalEnergies Signs a Five-year Liquefied Natural Gas Supply Agreement with ADNOC Gas, 3 November 2026: totalenergies.com
- gasworld, TotalEnergies signs 15-year LNG supply deal with Chinese energy group, 4 November 2026: gasworld.com
- Rigzone, TotalEnergies Bags 15-Year Deal to Supply LNG to China’s Jiangsu, 4 November 2026: rigzone.com
- The National, Adnoc Gas to supply TotalEnergies with up to 1.6 million tonnes of LNG in five-year deal, 3 November 2026: thenationalnews.com
- OilPrice.com, Qatar Becomes Largest Buyer of U.S. LNG Amid Hormuz Crisis, 4 November 2026: oilprice.com
- Bloomberg via Investing.com, Pakistan-bound LNG tanker attacked near Hormuz despite Iran clearance, 1 November 2026: investing.com
- Reuters via gCaptain, Venture Global begins supplying Plaquemines customers under long-term LNG contracts: gcaptain.com
