Brent oil price falls to four-week low near $103 as US-Iran talks hopes grow

The Brent oil price has dropped to its lowest level in nearly four weeks as hopes grow for a deal to end the US-Iran war. On 2 November 2026, Brent crude futures fell 7.6% to settle at $104.77 a barrel, according to CNBC. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 7.4% to $96.46. It was the biggest daily loss since 27 July 2026.

Prices then eased again on 3 November 2026. Brent fell $1.17, or 1%, to $103.60, its lowest close since 7 October 2026, Reuters reported. WTI slipped 37 cents to $96.09, its lowest since 14 October 2026, after briefly trading below $95.

Why the Brent oil price fell

The sell-off began after both presidents signalled that they are open to a diplomatic solution. US President Donald Trump told reporters that Iran wants to “make a deal and that could happen”. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is seeking to resolve problems through dialogue, state media reported.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said an agreement is possible if Washington “demonstrates goodwill”. In addition, he said Tehran expects the US to lift sanctions, reduce its regional military presence and lift its blockade. Qatar has also stepped up mediation to avert an escalation after the US midterm elections.

Much of October’s rally was a war risk premium. In fact, oil gained more than 10% in October 2026 as traders priced in possible strikes after the midterms. As a result, peace headlines now push that premium out quickly.

Risks keep a floor under crude

Even so, the conflict is not over. Overnight on 2 November 2026, the US carried out strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz. A US official said they targeted surface-to-air missiles used against US assets. Another official said the strikes appeared limited and did not signal a return to major combat.

Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz, which used to carry 20% of global oil supplies, remains effectively blockaded. “Despite these positive signals, it’s probably too early to think escalation risks have passed,” ING said in a note. Similarly, Ryan McKay of TD Securities said tanker and Houthi attacks mean diplomacy alone will not erase “the risk premium”.

For background on the October attacks on shipping, read our report on tankers hit by mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Curve and spread signals

The fall has also narrowed the gap between the two benchmarks. On our calculation, the Brent-WTI spread was $7.51 a barrel at the 3 November 2026 close, down from $8.31 a day earlier. That points to the Middle East risk premium easing faster in Brent, the seaborne global benchmark.

Early on 4 November 2026, Brent was down 26 cents at $103.34 by 0157 GMT, while WTI fell 53 cents to $95.56. However, US stock data offered some support. The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories fell by 5.27mn barrels in the week to 30 October 2026. By contrast, analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rise of about 880,000 barrels.

Gasoline stocks rose by 1.43mn barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 1.19mn barrels. “Diesel inventories remain tight,” Haitong Futures said.

What to watch for the Brent oil price

First, the US midterm results will shape expectations for Washington’s Iran policy. Second, official US Energy Information Administration stock data are due at 21:00 IST on 4 November 2026. Finally, any concrete progress in the Qatari-mediated talks, or a new attack on tankers, could move prices sharply in either direction.

For a deeper analysis, read: Brent-WTI Spread: Why the Iran Peace Trade Hit Brent Harder Than WTI