Brent crude holds near $115 as Houthi refinery claim and US–Iran strike fears lift oil

Brent crude settled at $115.32 a barrel on Wednesday 28 October 2026, up $1.44, or 1.3%. The gain came after Yemen’s Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and as traders priced in possible US strikes on Iran after next week’s US midterm elections. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose even faster, adding $2.88, or 3%, to settle at $102.78.

However, prices eased in early Asian trade on Thursday. Brent fell 82 cents, or 0.7%, to $114.50, while WTI lost $1.04, or 1.0%, to $101.74, as renewed peace efforts took some heat out of the rally. Even so, Brent is still up more than 17% this month.

Houthi claim on Ras Tanura keeps Brent crude bid

On Tuesday, the Houthis said they had hit Ras Tanura, the kingdom’s biggest refinery, with a ballistic missile. Their military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said the strike started a fire at the complex. Ras Tanura has a capacity of 0.55 mmbbl/d and sits next to one of Saudi Arabia’s two main crude export terminals. Saudi authorities did not confirm the strike. However, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia had contained a fire near the terminal.

The group also said it attacked Saudi military targets and the defence ministry in Riyadh. Meanwhile, the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles fired at the capital. On Wednesday, the Houthis also attacked Aden airport, according to Yemeni government forces. As a result, the fighting has now shattered the 2022 UN-brokered truce in Yemen.

US strike fears after the midterms

Traders are also watching Washington. Several analysts have said renewed US strikes on Iran could come after the midterm elections on 3 November 2026. “Crude futures once again pricing in nearer term tighter supplies on news the US is likely to re-start military operations soon,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

At the same time, diplomacy continues. Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war, an official briefed on the talks said. By contrast, a senior Iranian official said Doha had only put forward unacceptable ideas. Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that US Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei to revive negotiations.

“Selling pressure is prevailing amid expectations that peace talks may resume,” said Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities. “However, the decline remains limited.”

US stock draw adds support to Brent crude

Fundamentals also helped. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude inventories fell by 1.9 mmbbl in the week to 23 October 2026. By contrast, analysts had expected a build of 15,000 barrels. The draw also matched the 2 mmbbl decline in American Petroleum Institute data. On the other hand, gasoline stocks rose by 3.9 mmbbl, against an expected draw of 0.9 mmbbl.

In addition, China issued a rare fourth batch of fuel export quotas for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Sources said the extra batch brings the 2026 total in line with 2025, which could add product supply to Asia.

What to watch next for Brent crude

Wednesday’s gain pushed Brent back into overbought territory for the fourth time in five days. So the market now looks to three events. First, OPEC+ meets on Sunday 1 November 2026, and sources expect the group to keep its December 2026 output targets unchanged. Second, any Saudi confirmation of damage at Ras Tanura would test how much risk premium is already in prices. Finally, the US midterms on 3 November 2026 could shape whether Washington chooses talks or strikes.

For Saudi exports, the picture also depends on the East-West pipeline. Aramco recently offered spot crude to Europe at a discount after the line restarted.