India diesel exports look ready for a step change. On 27 October, officials said state refiners will add 16.5mn tonnes a year of diesel output in 2027. That is ~0.34 mmbbl/d, on our estimate, at 7.45 barrels per tonne.
India is already the second-largest seaborne diesel exporter this year after the US, Kpler data show. This analysis looks at where the new barrels come from, and why they matter.
Where the new India diesel exports come from
Indian Oil leads. It aims to add about 18mn tonnes a year of capacity, yielding about 8mn tonnes of diesel. After that, HPCL’s new 9mn-tonne Rajasthan refinery will make 3mn tonnes once it stabilises. Similarly, Oil India’s Numaligarh refinery expands to 9mn tonnes in March and adds 3mn tonnes. Finally, BPCL plans 1.5mn tonnes.
Those four add up to ~15.5mn tonnes. The officials’ total of 16.5mn tonnes suggests other projects add the rest.
Until now, Reliance and Nayara have done most of the exporting. By contrast, state companies mainly serve the home market, and some buy fuel from private refiners. However, new capacity will cut those purchases. As a result, it frees up both state and private volumes for export.
Even so, the market wants them. Global refining is running at very high rates, and war has disrupted trade flows and raised freight. Moreover, the IEA has warned about diesel this winter. In our view, India now has the scale to act as a swing supplier.
The risks for India diesel exports
To begin with, officials expect home fuel demand to rise, and it comes first. In addition, new units often take months to stabilise, as HPCL’s Rajasthan plant shows. Above all, export margins depend on crude costs. Freight for Middle East crude has jumped, which is why refiners such as HPCL now buy on a delivered basis.
Overall, India aims for 300mn tonnes a year of capacity by 2030, and 400mn later. For this quarter’s export outlook, see our report on product exports.
What to watch next
Start-up dates at Rajasthan and Numaligarh.
Monthly diesel export data from Kpler and the PPAC.
Entelera Research is the editorial team behind Entelera. We cover crude, LNG, power, renewables, policy and geopolitics, looking at energy the way companies have to: supply, demand, margins, policy and risk, with every number linked to its source and a close eye on India and its place in global markets.
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